Anthropic's S-1 Drops, Oil Cools, and Brazil Slides

Grant Calloway

Welcome to Markets Daily, your Monday Bull Sheet. Friday left us with a question. Treasuries rallied and pushed the ten year yield under five percent. Oil spiked past a hundred on Middle East attacks. Telecom got hammered on Starlink wireless chatter. So, does any of that hold when the bell rings? So far, mostly yes. Futures are pointing higher, oil is cooling, and Verizon just handed the telecom crowd something to chew on. The greatest four hundred milliseconds in capitalism are coming, and this tape feels a notch less jumpy than it did on Friday.

Grant Calloway

The headline this morning is Anthropic. Just before the open, the company publicly filed its S one with the SEC, and it plans to trade under the ticker ANT. The numbers, as reported by Yahoo Finance from the filing: revenue of 16.3 billion dollars in the six months ended June. That compares with 4.6 billion in all of 2025. Now the other side of the ledger. Anthropic spent 9 billion dollars on AI infrastructure in those same six months, against 7.3 billion for all of last year. Roughly one fifth of revenue came from two customers. And the filing shows a net loss of 80.7 billion dollars through June, though the vast majority of that came from accounting charges. So you've got a rocket and a fuel bill, both enormous. That matters because Microsoft and Alphabet report Wednesday evening, and the whole market wants to know what AI spending looks like when it's somebody else's check.

Grant Calloway

On to the tape. S&P 500 futures are up about four tenths of a percent. Dow futures are up roughly 150 points. Nasdaq 100 futures are higher too, somewhere between three tenths and six tenths of a percent, depending on when you looked. That's an attempt to snap two straight weekly losses for the S&P and the Nasdaq. I don't have a clean read on the Asia and Europe closes this morning, so I'll stay in my lane. In bonds, the ten year is holding just under five percent, around 4.97, extending Friday's relief. Oil is easing. Brent is back below 110 dollars after settling near 112 on Friday, when Houthi strikes hit Saudi infrastructure. Per Reuters, the attacks continued over the weekend, and Saudi Arabia restored partial operations at its main airport. WTI is down about one and a half to two percent. Bitcoin is hovering around 80,000. Gold is firm.

Grant Calloway

The other big shock is Brazil. President Lula won reelection in a surprise runoff win over Flavio Bolsonaro, and the iShares Brazil ETF is down about 26 percent in premarket trading. If that holds through the day, it would be its worst single session since 2000, per Yahoo Finance data. That's a bruise, not a scratch.

Grant Calloway

Movers, and let's spread them around. Verizon reported before the open. Adjusted earnings of 1.31 a share beat the 1.27 consensus. Revenue of 34.31 billion missed by about 540 million. But the story is subscribers. Verizon added a net 406,000 postpaid phone lines, more than double the 202,000 Wall Street expected, and its best third quarter in five years, per Bloomberg. It raised full year guidance and announced a 2 billion dollar AI infrastructure deal with AWS. And the stock? Down about half a percent, near 44 and a half. Beat the room, and the room still shrugs. That's the Starlink hangover talking. In Latin America, MercadoLibre is off about 14 percent. XP is down roughly 46 percent, Nu Holdings about 24, Banco Bradesco about 28, and Petrobras about 23. In energy tech, Bloom Energy is up two to three percent after Friday's slide, with raised full year guidance of 4.4 to 4.6 billion dollars. And in biotech, Moderna is down about eight and a half percent, and Adaptive Biotechnologies is off six.

Grant Calloway

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Grant Calloway

Now, Bull versus Bear. The question: is this morning's bounce the start of a base, or a bear trap with a bow on it? I'll argue both, then tell you where I land.

Grant Calloway

The bull says oil back below 110 takes the edge off the stagflation scare. The ten year anchored under five percent gives valuations room to breathe. Earnings have been solid, with the figures I've seen showing over eighty percent of S&P companies that have reported beating estimates. And Anthropic's 16.3 billion in six months says the AI demand is real. Hold rates, deliver the earnings, and this market has fuel.

Grant Calloway

The bear says hold on. Wednesday's Fed meeting, Chair Kevin Warsh's first big test in this setup, carries real risk of what folks are calling a hawkish pause. Alan Blinder, the former Fed vice chair, is expecting exactly that, and he's said the moment calls for clear guidance that strongly hints at another hike. Then there's the Anthropic filing itself. Nine billion dollars of infrastructure spending in six months, and a fifth of sales from two customers, is the capital intensity argument in a single document. If Microsoft and Alphabet signal bigger spending and thinner margins, and oil flares back up, this bounce gets stepped on.

Grant Calloway

Where do I land? I've traded through two crashes, so I distrust any rally that rests on nothing but the absence of bad news. Oil cooling and yields easing are relief, not resolution. But I'm not calling it a trap either. Both sides are right about different calendar days. The bull owns Monday. The bear gets a vote Wednesday afternoon. I'd respect the Fed and the earnings before I'd respect anybody's conviction today, including mine.

Grant Calloway

On deck. Light data today, all times Eastern. The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for September at 8:30 a.m., prior reading minus 0.04. The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index for October at 10:30 a.m., prior 9.8. Earnings: Verizon already reported. After the close, we get Cadence Design Systems, expected at 1.61 a share, Welltower at 1.64, Nucor at 5.71, Public Storage at 4.27, plus Amkor and Hartford Insurance. And zoom out, because this is a monster week. 547 companies worth two billion dollars or more report, with about 31.7 trillion dollars in market value. The Fed decision lands Wednesday at 2 p.m. Eastern, with Warsh at the podium at 2:30. Microsoft and Alphabet follow that evening. Thursday brings the first read on third quarter GDP at 8:30, with 3.2 percent expected, plus the PCE inflation data and Amazon. Friday, ExxonMobil and Chevron close it out.

Grant Calloway

What matters most today: whether that ten year yield stays under five percent and whether oil stays south of 110. Everything else is noise until Wednesday. Join me tomorrow, when Coca-Cola, Boeing and UPS report before the open, and the Fed meeting begins. Remember, the market's a lot like a Saturday night barbecue. The real action starts when somebody lifts the lid. And one quick note: this podcast is for educational purposes only and is not investment advice.