Yields Top 5% as Buffett Steps Aside at Berkshire
Markets open with Treasury yields above 5%, Fed policy shifting, and a sharp debate over whether resilient labor and housing data can offset higher borrowing costs. The episode also covers Buffett’s Berkshire transition, moves in crypto-linked stocks, and the day’s key catalysts, including PMI data and the EIA crude inventory report.
Chapter 1
Post Hike Reality: 5 percent Yields, Oil at 98, and Sector Movers
Grant Calloway
Futures are ticking around right now for Wednesday, September 23, 2026, and uh, if you look at the board, S and P 500 futures are up 0.2 percent. Nasdaq 100 futures are basically flat, while Dow futures are edging up 0.15 percent. But the, the real headline, the real gravitational pull on this market right now, is sitting over in the bond pit.
Grant Calloway
The 10 year Treasury yield just pushed past 5.01 percent. That comes right on the heels of the Federal Reserve raising the target rate for the first time in over three years. At the same time, WTI crude is holding tight at 98 dollars and 20 cents a barrel. Meanwhile, over in crypto land, Bitcoin blew right past 81,000 dollars as short sellers got squeezed out. It is a tight tape out there today, folks.
Grant Calloway
Now, we also have an end of an era moment on the corporate front. Warren Buffett, 96 years young, is officially stepping down as board chairman at Berkshire Hathaway to take on the role of chairman emeritus. His son, Howard Buffett, is taking over as board chair, while Greg Abel continues running operations. Berkshire's Class B shares are off about 1.2 percent in early action as Wall Street digests the changing of the guard.
Grant Calloway
Looking across individual sectors, we have got some pretty stark divergence. Crypto linked equities are catching a bid. Circle Internet Group is up 5.8 percent and Robinhood is up 5.2 percent. That comes after the SEC announced a five year exemption for tokenized stock trading. A little regulatory breathing room goes a long way in that corner of the room.
Grant Calloway
On the downside, CoreWeave is down 4.2 percent after announcing plans to raise capital through stock and convertible bond offerings. Fluence Energy is getting hammered, tumbling 15.4 percent after cutting its fiscal year 2026 revenue guidance. And Netflix is off 4 percent following a downgrade from Wells Fargo to Underweight with a 57 dollar price target, citing concerns over content engagement.
Grant Calloway
You know, back when I was standing on the floor of the New York Stock Exchange, when yield environments like this hit, or when legendary founders passed the baton, people would panic about liquidity drying up. But the specialist system worked because you focused on order flow, not noise. A five percent yield environment is not the end of the world. It just means capital actually has a cost again.
Chapter 2
The 5 percent Rate Battle: Bull vs. Bear on Economic Gravity
Grant Calloway
That brings us to the big debate playing out between the bulls and the bears today over this 5.01 percent 10 year Treasury yield and an effective federal funds rate sitting at 3.88 percent. It really comes down to two completely different views of economic gravity.
Grant Calloway
The bulls look at the data and say, hey, look at initial jobless claims. They are hovering near 1969 lows. Look at single family housing starts and pending home sales. They are showing real resilience. In the bull view, American corporate earnings are robust enough to swallow higher borrowing costs without breaking a sweat.
Grant Calloway
But then you turn around and talk to the bears. And the bears will point straight at 98 dollar crude oil and say that energy cost inflation is seeping into everything. Plus, you have life insurers holding 2.1 trillion dollars in private credit exposure. When debt needs to be refinanced at five percent yields, those balance sheet margins get squeezed real fast.
Grant Calloway
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Grant Calloway
Alright, looking at the docket for today, September 23, we have MBA Mortgage Applications dropping at 7:00 AM Eastern. Then at 9:45 AM, we get the S and P Global Flash US Manufacturing and Services PMI data. And at 10:30 AM Eastern, the EIA crude oil inventory report comes out, which could shake up energy prices depending on build figures.
Grant Calloway
As we open up shop today, remember an old floor trader rule I used to live by: never confuse a bull market with brains, and never fear volatility if your risk is managed. Keep your head on a swivel.
Grant Calloway
Please note, this podcast is strictly for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security.